DFS Value Finder: Week 3

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This is a simple, straightforward piece. At the end of the week, I’m taking our weekly composite staff rankings from our Season Pass section and comparing those rankings as it pertains to players we see as starting caliber options to the pricing at FanDuel, DraftKings, and Yahoo.

<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="Matthew Stafford&nbsp;vs. Cardinals&nbsp;– QB12&nbsp;(Fanduel, QB14, $7,300)” data-reactid=”25″>Matthew Stafford vs. Cardinals — QB12 (Fanduel, QB14, $7,300)

Stafford and the Lions are set to play in the perfect game environment on Sunday. They face Arizona in a game with a 55-point total and Vegas has the Lions as 5.5-point underdogs. The Lions haven’t been afraid to air it out when losing. They’ve run 36 plays while trailing and have passed on 81% of them. That passing rate when trailing is the highest mark in the league. Now he’ll have the luxury of throwing to Kenny Golladay once again as the star receiver is set to make his 2020 debut this week. With Golladay in the fold, Stafford is a great value as the QB14.

<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="Kyler Murray vs. Lions — QB3 (DraftKings, QB4, $6,800)” data-reactid=”29″>Kyler Murray vs. Lions — QB3 (DraftKings, QB4, $6,800)

The difference between our Expert Ranking of Murray and his pricing rank among passers on DraftKings looks small but there’s a catch. Our Experts have him ranked as the third-best passer on the entire week while DraftKings has him priced as No. 4 among only the quarterbacks playing in the morning and afternoon games on Sunday. Even in the context of a week that features Lamar Jackson versus Patrick Mahomes, our rankers see Murray as one of the best plays of the week.

Murray’s biggest fantasy weapon is his rushing output. He’s first in rushing yards for quarterbacks at 158 on the ground. His three scores trail only Cam Newton. The Cardinals have yet to allow a team to score more than 20 points. If the Lions break that trend, Murray and the Cardinals will be forced to play with pace and put points on the board. He’s in play for both the 100-yard rushing bonus and the 300-yard passing bonus in DraftKings scoring this week.

<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="Editor’s Note: Unlock the brand new League Sync! Keep track of all your Yahoo! teams in one place and use our Trade Analyzer, Free Agent Finder, Lineup Adviser and custom projections to make all the right roster decisions!&nbsp;&nbsp;Get all of our Season Tools, League Sync AND DFS Tools for as low as $7.99/month!” data-reactid=”34″>Editor’s Note: Unlock the brand new League Sync! Keep track of all your Yahoo! teams in one place and use our Trade Analyzer, Free Agent Finder, Lineup Adviser and custom projections to make all the right roster decisions! Get all of our Season Tools, League Sync AND DFS Tools for as low as $7.99/month!

<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="Cam Newton vs. Raiders — QB6 (Yahoo, QB9, $32)” data-reactid=”36″>Cam Newton vs. Raiders — QB6 (Yahoo, QB9, $32)

Newton leads all quarterbacks in carries at 26 and touchdowns at four. He’s completed 71% of his passes and is averaging 8.8 yards per attempt. He’s even the goal line back for New England with five carries inside the five. Newton is getting it done in any fashion he chooses. Yahoo’s $32 tag for him is egregious. Our projections have him as a top-three value at quarterback this week. He’s an easy play in cash games and shouldn’t be overlooked in tournaments either.

<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="Jonathan Taylor vs. Jets — RB4 (Fanduel, RB13, $6,700)” data-reactid=”40″>Jonathan Taylor vs. Jets — RB4 (Fanduel, RB13, $6,700)

This marks the second straight week that pops up as a value across all DFS sites. Box score surfers will say he split carries with Jordan Wilkins in Week 2. Wilkins rushed nine times versus the Vikings but eight of his carries came in the second half. The Colts held a two-score lead in the entire second half and Taylor’s services weren’t required. He out-carried Wilkins 15-1 in the first half. Nyheim Hines did not record a carry at any point in the game. Taylor should see nearly every carry for Indianapolis until they have a significant lead over the lowly Jets. He will likely find the end zone at least once before the game reaches that point.

<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="Miles Sanders vs. Bengals — RB5 (DraftKings, RB11, $6,400)” data-reactid=”44″>Miles Sanders vs. Bengals — RB5 (DraftKings, RB11, $6,400)

Sanders is another player that the pricing algorithms seemed to have whiffed on this week. Sanders missed Week 1 with a hamstring injury. His Week 2 debut was incredibly promising. Per Hayden Winks’ Fantasy Usage Model, Sanders saw top-five volume among running backs on the week. Most notably, he was targeted seven times. He played on 32 receiving snaps to Boston Scott’s eight. The Eagles are favored by nearly a touchdown versus the Bengals and have a clear workhorse back. Play Sanders now before his price goes through the roof.

<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="James Conner vs. Texans — RB15&nbsp;(Yahoo, RB25, 17$)” data-reactid=”52″>James Conner vs. Texans — RB15 (Yahoo, RB25, 17$)

<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="When James Conner is healthy is a statement that has brought many fantasy teams to ruin but it’s worth examining. When he is healthy, Conner has a three-down role in Pittsburgh. He carried the ball 16 times in Week 2 and added two catches. Benny Snell contributed three carries and only played on 10 snaps to Conner’s 50. Snell and Jaylen Samuels combined for two catches which went for a collective zero yards. Yahoo has Conner and Snell priced within a dollar of each other. Conner did not appear on the injury report this week and should be viewed as an elite fantasy option for&nbsp;any week when that statement holds true.” data-reactid=”54″>When James Conner is healthy is a statement that has brought many fantasy teams to ruin but it’s worth examining. When he is healthy, Conner has a three-down role in Pittsburgh. He carried the ball 16 times in Week 2 and added two catches. Benny Snell contributed three carries and only played on 10 snaps to Conner’s 50. Snell and Jaylen Samuels combined for two catches which went for a collective zero yards. Yahoo has Conner and Snell priced within a dollar of each other. Conner did not appear on the injury report this week and should be viewed as an elite fantasy option for any week when that statement holds true.

<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="Allen Robinson vs. Falcons — WR4 (Fanduel, WR12, $6,900)” data-reactid=”56″>Allen Robinson vs. Falcons — WR4 (Fanduel, WR12, $6,900)

Robinson’s bottom line hasn’t been great this year. He’s yet to score and has been held under 75 yards in both contests. The good news is that there are bound to be good weeks in Robinson’s future. He currently has a 28.1% target share and a 39.6% share of the Bear’s air yards. Chicago’s offense still runs through Robinson, that just hasn’t shown itself with a big game yet. Leading receivers facing the Falcons have averaged seven catches for 99 yards. A bounceback is coming for Chicago’s top receiver.

<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="N’Keal Harry vs. Raiders — WR41 (DraftKings, WR50, $4,200)” data-reactid=”60″>N’Keal Harry vs. Raiders — WR41 (DraftKings, WR50, $4,200)

After a nonexistent rookie season, Harry has come back to life with 13 catches for 111 receiving yards. Those totals are already higher than what he achieved last year. Harry has turned his career around on the back of a 29% target share. That mark is top-10 among receivers through two weeks. Stacking Newton and Harry against a middling Raiders Defense is a viable strategy this week.

<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="Diontae Johnson vs. Texans — WR14 (Yahoo, WR33, $18)” data-reactid=”64″>Diontae Johnson vs. Texans — WR14 (Yahoo, WR33, $18)

Johnson has quietly usurped JuJu Smith-Schuster as the leading receiving in Pittsburgh. His 23 targets are nine more than Smith-Schuster. Johnson’s average depth of target sits at a pedestrian mark of 6.3 but compared to Smith-Schuster’s target depth of 4.1, he’s also being used farther down the field. Our experts have Johnson as the better fantasy receiver in Pittsburgh but the pricing on most DFS sites will say otherwise. That presents a great opportunity to mine some value until their prices flip.

<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="Dallas Goedert vs. Cincinnati — TE9 (Fanduel, TE11, $5,200)” data-reactid=”68″>Dallas Goedert vs. Cincinnati — TE9 (Fanduel, TE11, $5,200)

Zach Ertz can’t be the leading receiver in Philadelphia indefinitely. Every player reaches a point when a younger player take their role and become the next man up. Goedert is that player for Ertz. Goedert leads Philadelphia in all receiving categories with a 12/131/1 line on the year. His 17 targets also lead the team. Most importantly, he’s averaging 7.7 yards per target while Ertz is at 4.3 yards per target. Goedert is less expensive and will be less popular in tournaments than Ertz. The upside is that he is the true No. 1 tight end in Philadelphia at the end of the week

<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="Hunter Henry vs. Panthers — TE4 (DraftKings, TE8, $4,800)” data-reactid=”72″>Hunter Henry vs. Panthers — TE4 (DraftKings, TE8, $4,800)

TyRod Taylor has 47 starts in his career and has topped 300 yards on one occasion. It took their rookie quarterback and No. 6 overall pick Justin Herbert exactly one start to hit 300 yards through the air. Herbert’s presence in the starting lineup is going to bode well for all players involved, including Henry. He is top-five in targets (16) and air yards (153) among tight ends this year and now gets a quarterback who is willing to take shots downfield and pass more aggressively. Henry and Herbert stacks are an interesting pivot off more popular passers in large tournaments.

<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="Dalton Schultz vs. Seahawks — TE16 (Yahoo, TE23, $10)” data-reactid=”76″>Dalton Schultz vs. Seahawks — TE16 (Yahoo, TE23, $10)

Yahoo left Schultz at the minimum price of $10 this week so feel free to lock him in for cash games. Last week, Schultz served as the Cowboys’ starting tight end in place of Blake Jarwin, who landed on injured reserve with a torn ACL following Week 1. Schultz moved around the field in his first start since 2018. He saw 31 snaps inline, 21 out wide, and five in the slot. Schultz played on a total of 37 receiving snaps and exploded with a 9/88/1 line on 10 targets. The Cowboys matchup with Seattle features a 56.5-point total, the highest mark in Week 2. Schultz is the cheapest way to access that game on Yahoo.

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